Risk management - Obtaining the estimates

Obtaining the estimates

In general, initial steps follow:

Define, identify the risks and organise them as seen previously.
Possibly break down variables into smaller components as necessary to gain a better insight (see next for example)
We need to be in a position to justify the existence of a variable for estimation to those doing the estimating.
Be aware of any conditions and assumptions that are valid for the estimation exercise.
A group of experts is required both specific and general.
Training. A person from the analysis team trains those responsible for estimation, familiarising them with techniques and problems.
The analyst should record the actions and judgements.
If there is a conflict as to the values and likelihood of particular values then additional meetings may be required to examine the details more closely and obtain a consensus.
Estimates may well be based upon data collected over time. However, experience in dealing with these problems may lead the group to reduce the likely impact of a further occurrence.
On occasion there will not be enough data or it will be so uncertain that it may not be possible to derive a confident value and likelihood.

Data supports due consideration of values and probabilities which in turn support decision making.

other areas of interest in the series