Introduction
The Risk Management process
Risk issues
Modelling
Events
Networks and branching
Other
This shows the cumulative probability graph for tasks ‘A’ or ‘B’ and tasks ‘A’ and ‘B’ combined [see The Risk Management process - Evaluate - independent correlation]. Note that although we were looking at values of:
| Delay | Probability |
|---|---|
| 7 | 0.3 |
| 9 | 0.5 |
| 11 | 0.2 |
We are actually seeing the ranges:
| Delay | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 to 8 | 0.3 |
| 8 to 10 | 0.5 |
| 10 to 12 | 0.2 |
| Delay | Calculation | Probability | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.3 x 0.3 | 0.09 | ||||
| 16 | 0.3 x 0.5 | + | 0.5 x 0.3 | 0.30 | ||
| 18 | 0.3 x 0.2 | + | 0.5 x 0.5 | + | 0.2 x 0.3 | 0.37 |
| 20 | 0.5 x 0.2 | + | 0.2 x 0.5 | 0.20 | ||
| 22 | 0.2 x 0.2 | 0.04 | ||||
other areas of interest in the series
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